Finally, the Predictions for 2024
Some guts and clairvoyance for now, and we will, finally, keep score
Devotees of this space will know that we embrace the special genius and charisma of courage! Let us make our predictions for 2024. Keep score!
In no particular order . . . .
Ukraine will end the year in roughly the same place. At the end of the year, there will be no major difference in borderlines or territory controlled.
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s demon of Gaza, is captured or killed. He will take hostages with him.
At least one of Ismail Haniyeh, Moussa Abu Marzuk or Khaled Mashal, the ghastly Hamas terror leaders living in Qatar, will be assassinated. Qatar will protest. Their protest will not matter or change any policy anywhere, including in Qatar. Update as of January 2, 2024: Saleh al-Arouri, a comparably top Hamas leader, is assassinated in Beirut, along with another half dozen terrorists.
Gaza will have no Palestinian-led government. Israel will start to carve its buffer zone.
Hezbollah will not escalate to a hot war. They will continue to trade blows with Israel. But this will not turn into a full-blown conflict.
Main global threat of the year will be Iran’s continued development of near-nuclear-bomb-level fissile material. Tehran will accelerate if they can. A preemptive strike by the United States or Israel is on the table. Such an attack will not result in a war.
Vladimir Putin ends the year alive and in charge of Russia. His power will consolidate and yet wane as Russia slides into its newfound status as China’s client-state.
Biden wins unless Nikki Haley is Trump’s VP nominee. Which she won't be. But if she is . . . .
The United States ends 2024 with materially the same feckless immigration policy. Nearly ceaseless border crossings continue. The legal war between DC and Texas escalates. Immigration becomes the biggest threat to Biden and is still not enough for him to lose (unless Haley is on the GOP ticket).
Claudine Gay is no longer the President of Harvard. She commences a new extended chapter in her life, consecrated to recriminating — and suing — Harvard or other parties on the basis of discrimination. Update as of January 2, 2024: Claudine Gay is resigning. Update as of January 3, 2024: Gay publishes op-ed in New York Times taking precious little responsibility and citing as the ultimate cause of her toppling a combination of racism and a rightwing conspiracy to undermine educational and other institutions.
Rishi Sunak sinks the Tories. The Conservative Party has the better case for the UK, but Sunak lacks the qualities necessary to lead a party to electoral victory.
Trump is convicted in Georgia and federally. He is jailed.
NoLabels does not run a presidential ticket. They conclude they are more spoilers for Biden than not. They succeed in pulling Biden to the center.
Some brave soul or another makes and distributes a mainstream movie or publishes a mainstream book in which DEI or MeToo don’t automatically carry the day. And in this work, unlike in some of the recent assays, the criticism of DEI is neither quaint nor of the “it’s cool but at least let’s admit it’s incomplete” variety but instead full-throated. Millions consume it. A new market opens. A girl can dream.
A visible European rational-immigration or anti-immigration politician is assassinated by an Islamist. Regular battle lines are drawn. Something may start to feel different.
Islamist terror strikes at least one major European city. The incident is bloody. Regular battle lines are drawn. Something may start to feel different.
European countries consider wide-ranging expulsion policies for illegal immigrants from Muslim countries. Policy proposals are rejected for now. Regular battle lines are drawn. Something does start to feel different.
S&P ends year up 10%.
QQQ ends year up 20%.
IWM ends year up 30%.
OIH ends year up 20%.
BTC hits $70,000.
Euro depreciates 10% vs. the USD.
None of the above or below or anything else I write is financial advice. FFS. I can’t believe I have to write this. But that’s that.
Leeds United returns to the Premier League. (If you know, you know: I have a horse in this race.)
Netanyahu is no longer Prime Minister of Israel. He loses the job as soon as the first election takes place, if not sooner. Israel can’t find another stable national leader. There is a cycle of leadership confusion for a while, extending into 2025, at least.
Biggest use case of AI is software (re)development. I have a horse in this race, too (cf. modelcode.ai).
Self-driving makes a comeback. After a bad 2023, self-driving cars get another look and take off again. Not on highways, but in closed-circuit campus-type uses and then in smaller cities.
Faith gets more regard. One senses a shift in the wind. One might call it another Awakening. One might call it a working conclusion that the social-media-consumerism nexus is increasingly viewed as a rootless societal failure and, in some quarters, evil. Can the West defeat reemergent barbarism with better weapons, superior life sciences research, and media reach alone? Or is a value system required? And if so, where does one find or locate such a value system? Witness the conversion of famous atheist Ayaan Hirsi Ali Ferguson to Christianity. Or the advocacy of Catherine Pakaluk, who explains that women of faith have more kids, and that faith, not tax policy, is the most promising solution to global depopulation. This prediction is hard to measure. But watch for more consideration of faith, perhaps measured by more articles in the “MSM” on the subject.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk have health scares. Ones we learn about. Americans realize they don't really want one and really do want the other. Update as of January 7, 2024: WSJ reports that investors, board members, and others involved with Musk’s companies have expressed concern about his use of legal and illegal drugs.
Warren Buffet dies. Exit smiling. Berkshire Hathaway becomes more valuable.
A US billionaire founds and funds a new professional news gathering organization. Fed up with the status quo, this billionaire doesn’t buy an old existing outlet to keep it alive or to reform it. It’s a new entity.
Milei’s reforms in Argentina start to work. Visibly.
China does not invade Taiwan. Nor does China make a blockade of Taiwan.
Killing of African Christians by Islamists manages to become front-page news in the West. This is sustained for a period of months. Some US or Western news organization sends real-live journalists to cover the conflict and keeps them there for a while. Consequences follow. (See prediction in re faith.)
A new shooting war starts with Russia, Venezuela, or Pakistan as instigators. Your guess as to who is the recipient of this military largesse.
Microdosing overdose kills or permanently maims a prominent Silicon Valley type. Reformers and regulators pay attention. Update as of January 7, 2024: WSJ reports that investors, board members, and others involved with Elon Musk’s companies have expressed concern about his use of legal and illegal drugs.
One major national professional licensing organization (APA, AMA, ABA, etc.) sees a major breakaway schism. The anti-science, anti-knowledge, anti-merit movement meets at least one professional org comeuppance.
Antisemitic incidents in the United States triple. At least one major pro-Palestinian entity is named to the federal list of terrorist organizations.
After so many years in power, the Conservatives look tired and ineffectual. And after Boris, Teresa and Liz, Rishi's the bet asset they have.
Bold predictions. Most, eerily scary. Very insightful!