Finally, the Predictions for 2026

Some guts and clairvoyance for now, and we shall, finally, keep score

Devotees of this space will know that we embrace the special genius and charisma of courage.

Our umpires, referees, judges, and sages have made their ruling (see yesterday’s post) and have awarded a Finally Final Score of 29 out of a possible 48. That’s about 60%, which is slightly higher than last year’s 57%. Though it is not as superrrrb as one would have wanted, this figure again assuredly indicates that your devoted correspondent has not wasted time with dull, safe-space O. Henry predictions or less-than-useless Nate Silver “forecasts.”

We continue in this vein. Presenting our 41 Finally auguries for 2026, in no particular order . . .

Democrats regain the House. For the sake of extra care, I’ll predict that Democrats hold 219 seats after the November election.

Republicans hold the Senate. Of the tossups, they win at least North Carolina, which is enough to hold the Senate 51-49 or 50-50-plus-Vice President.

JB Pritzker is reelected Governor of Illinois. He increasingly becomes a target for the White House, who believe he represents the biggest Democratic threat in the 2028 Presidential election.

Tim Walz loses his re-election in Minnesota. His voters realize he is incompetent, the Dan Quayle of the Democratic Party, and the hapless Chairman of the massive Somali fraud, which transpired under his watch. Update as of 1/5/26: that was fast — he will not seek reelection. He has not resigned, but we wonder if that is next. Rumors abound that he is going to be indicted, but they are just rumors.

Josh Shapiro is reelected Governor of Pennsylvania. He is one of America’s very best Democrats, and his star continues to rise.

Lula is reelected by Brazil. The country remains in perpetual “one day” mode.

Denmark returns a nationalist, conservative government, likely the most in a generation. The Blue Bloc (which is the conservative bloc in this backwards tiny country) is bolstered by increasing anti-Islamist immigration sentiment and a pride about Greenland (however hilarious).

Sweden elects a conservative government. Immigration reform remains a growing motivation and priority.

Ritchie Torres is reelected to Congress. The phalanx of incompetents who are arraying against him, including Bill de Blasio, are proven to be as amateurish as they are disloyal.

Either Eric Swalwell or Antonio Villaraigosa is elected Governor of California. California is yearning for a centrist Democrat.

Zohran Mamdani proves to be exactly as Marxist and Anti-Semitic as he appears to be. The reprobate bigot Catherine Almonte Da Costa is not his last appointee who is forced to resign due to her overt antisemitism. Mamdani takes a page from Trump’s playbook and attempts to use executive authority to hobble business. Under his direction, housing inspectors cause havoc for building owners. Wealth begins its slow but inexorable departure.

Jessica Tisch resigns as New York Police Commissioner. She lets it be known that the basis of her resignation is Mamdani’s bigotry and anti-police recidivism.

A new Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) is founded. Centrist and business Democrats realize they must band together in order to survive, recapture the party, and start winning elections.

A nationally prominent, far-right, self-proclaimed anti-homosexuality Christian is involuntarily outed as gay. We decline to provide a name at this time. Let’s just watch.

Electricity becomes a national US priority. Lawmakers and decision makers realize that power supply is at the core of our national competition with China. Two new nuclear plants are authorized. In the alternative, a comparable volume of coal, gas, solar, and other initiatives are approved.

Two major Islamist terror attacks, each with multiple casualties, are carried out in Europe. Public opinion continues to harden.

Forced (involuntary) remigration tops 10,000 in Europe. It is a small beginning of a trend.

Ceasefire is achieved between Ukraine and Russia. It is not a good outcome for Ukraine.

Israel bombs Iran again. With or without US permission.

Nicolas Maduro is no longer president of Venezuela. One way or another, he is out of office before the end of the year. Update as of 1/3/26: that was fast. Captured, rendered, and prosecuted.

China does not invade Taiwan. No shooting match, no shoot-downs or sinking.

The Houthi military capacity is further degraded. Ongoing air and ground attacks are slow and unspectacular but effective.

No new significant armed conflict anywhere. I’ll broaden the prediction. No major new hot conflict arises. Not Thailand-Cambodia. Not Turkey-Israel. No India-Pakistan.

Sudan conflict gets at least 100% more media attention. I am figuring out how to measure this clearly — your ideas are welcome. We shall venture forth without a pre-determined metric. The point is that that newly re-identified or re-strengthened Christian and mainstream media outlets amplify their focus on Islamist violence.

A name brand university dismantles its Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion infrastructure. I am renewing this from last year. We have not yet seen a top-flight university take this step of its own accord. To the extent it has happened, it has happened only due to legislative fiat, and even then the ranks of administrators have frequently declined to adhere to the new rules.

Code Modernization becomes Generative AI’s most valuable use case. If you’ve been keeping track . . . . המבין יבין.

Venture Capital will be changed forever. Kindly stay tuned.

Summer 2025 is the hottest on record in the Northern Hemisphere. The trend continues.

Fed cuts total 0.75% in the course of the year.

Zero Supreme Court Justices retire. At 77 years old, Justice Thomas is the oldest member of the Court. If he is going to step down in order to maximize chances of a conservative replacement (without risking GOP loss of the Senate), 2026 is the year. But he won't.

Joe Biden dies. This is not a happy prediction, nor is it a safe one.

S&P ends year up 5%.

QQQ ends year up 8%.

IWM ends year up 7%.

OIH ends year up 10%.

BTC hits $150,000.

Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl. (Learning from mistakes, and I am officially partisan.)

Leeds United remains in the Premier League. המבין יבין. I used that already.

My horse does not win the Kentucky Derby. It’s okay. He never does.

Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series. This is not what I do, but I must.

Either Inter Miami or Atlanta United make it to the MLS Cup. It’s a hedge, but it’s still a prediction.

Added by popular demand (and thank you to the loyal readers:

France or Spain wins the World Cup. I think it’s France. Also, I think England reaches the semi-finals.

The terror ayatollahs remain in control of Iran. They kill many thousands. The repression gets worse. Khamanei lives long enough to kill many of his own generals and colonels as the officer class become more restless.