Finally, the Predictions for 2025

Some guts and clairvoyance for now, and we will, finally, keep score

Devotees of this space will know that we embrace the special genius and charisma of courage!

Our umpires, referees, judges, and sages have made their ruling on the Finally predictions for 2024 and have awarded a Finally Final Score of 21.5 points out of a possible 38. That’s about 57%, which is not as superrrrb as one would have wanted but which assuredly indicates that your devoted correspondent has not wasted time with dull, safe-space O. Henry predictions or less-than-useless Nate Silver “forecasts.”

We continue in this vein. Presenting our Finally predictions for 2025!

In no particular order . . . .

There will be no major new shooting war involving Russia, China, North Korea, or Pakistan. The Trump Effect will be pacifying, at least in the short term.

Iran is severely pummeled by air. Nuclear-related infrastructure is explicitly targeted and materially degraded. Israel, supported by the United States and perhaps by a newly reinvigorated United Kingdom, leads the assault. As of this writing, Israel and Iran are already engaged in a long-term active war, so the 2025 attack will not be considered either especially preemptive or responsive. It may or may not be precipitated proximately by further Iranian adventurism. But the attack happens one way or the other.

The Houthis are at least temporarily removed as a plausible regional threat. In the course of the year, the West finally regains its fortitude and clarity, prompted in part by Israel’s necessary actions against Houthi terrorist activity. Many Houthis are killed. The Houthis’ long-range war-making infrastructure is rendered inoperable. The comparatively less dreadful Yemeni government, sponsored by the Saudi Kingdom, makes westward land gains as the Houthis suffer aerial and naval bombardment from the developed world.

Israel remains in control of Gaza. No major concessions are made.

Between ten and twenty Israeli hostages are recovered alive. This happens through a combination of small-scope deal-making, accidental discovery, and rescue. Consensus emerges that there is no longer any actual empowered decision-maker on the Hamas side who can, in fact, make a deal that binds Hamas to returning further hostages in a more global deal. In short, Hamas has no one left with whom Israel can strike anything beyond minor, piecemeal bargains. Hamas’s on-the-ground leadership, through multiple levels of seniority, are dead, incommunicado, or so severely terrified of infiltration that they refuse to speak with putative comrades. The speculated authority of Mohammed Sinwar (Yahya’s brother) is deemed a mirage, and the ex-territorial supposed leadership are not only irrelevant but increasingly slain.

Germany’s election returns the most conservative government in decades. Joachim-Friedrich Martin Josef Merz, leader of the CDU, not only requisitions a more usable name but becomes Chancellor. Jawohl. The reconsideration of Angela Merkel’s legacy continues. Consensus begins to cohere that she was a disaster for immigration but not as bad on Russia as is currently maintained by her loudest critics. Merz loudly refuses to collaborate with the AfD, but AfD’s growing electoral success pulls his government rightward. Update 1/10/25: Merkel’s legacy is declining even faster than anticipated: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/angela-merkel-wants-her-memoir-to-save-her-legacy-its-backfiring-509b30c5?mod=hp_lead_pos9 .

Germany tables legislation to compel emigration of Syrian refugees. It stalls. Forces regroup for 2026.

Poland’s Law & Justice Party returns to power in the presidential election. Electoral results have everything to do with Russia and nothing to do with internal politics or bread and butter issues. Karol Nawrocki is elected. (Where else but Eastern Europe could an archivist become President?)

Javier Milei continues the superb progress of his reform agenda in Argentina but suffers a setback in the by-election. It’s hard to do hard things. And many Do Gooders array against you.

Haiti collapses into full disorder. No one comes to the rescue. At least 10,000 die from violence and disease. Worse is expected.

Kamala Harris disappears. She becomes an Instagram figure. Biden White House and Harris campaign personnel continue to tell their conflicting stories about how magisterially she handled Biden’s too-late decision to cease his candidacy and her consequently poor deck of cards and how the flames of rightwing populism were fanned by the realities of global inflation into a worldwide, insurmountable conflagration of anti-incumbency. The mainstream media’s talking heads nod agreeably. No one listens or believes them.

The Taylor Swift backlash begins. I’m not even sure I know what this means. But girls and women across America start to observe that her songs all sound the same, that they can’t name any from the past two albums, and that there is a fuzzy liminal border area among sweet, saccharine, and sickly. A girl can dream.

America gets serious about a border wall. Trump, acting with or without Congress, advances the construction of a wall that will eventually cover the entire border with Mexico. When I first heard about the idea nine years ago or so, I thought, like many Americans, that it was jingoistic, nuts, and unnecessary. Now, like many Americans, I consider it jingoistic, obvious, and necessary.

Asylum policy in the West takes a major turn. Policies now perceived as extreme are floated in mainstream circles. Deportation to holding camps in Puerto Rico, Canada, or Greenland. Floating barriers in the English Channel. Deliberate sinking of migrant boats in the Mediterranean. The assault on received global refugee law gathers speed. These ideas remain politically radioactive for now, but they move the goalposts. Update 1/13/25: AfD in Germany makes mass deportations a plank in its electoral campaign: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62q937y029o .

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) finds $300 Billion of immediately actionable savings. Then the real work begins. As the president stops spending authorized money and starts firing employees, litigation about the so-called Unitary Executive — essentially the breadth of Article II power — proliferates. Trump proves a sometimes reliable partner to DOGE’s objectives. No one is surprised.

Pete Hegseth is confirmed as Defense Secretary. He overcomes objections. Update 1/24/25: Hegseth is confirmed with needed Vance tie-breaker.

Tulsi Gabbard is not confirmed as Director of National Intelligence. Sanity prevails. Update as of 2/12/25: Sanity failed. She was confirmed in a vote of 52-48.

Biggest use case of AI is software (re)development. I have multiple horses in this race (cf. modelcode.ai).

S&P ends year up 10%.

QQQ ends year up 10%.

IWM ends year up 10%.

OIH ends year up 10%.

(Starting to seem consistent, huh?)

BTC hits $150,000.

Euro depreciates 5% against the USD.

Falling global birth rates prompt increasingly serious discussion about religion and not just so-called child-friendly labor policy. It should be clear by now that maternity-friendly policies, while perhaps good ideas for other reasons, have little impact on birth rates. The toolkit is exhausted. Public discussion is increasingly allowed to include commentary, above a whisper, that religious people, at every economic level, have more kids. The liberalization of this conversation makes room for even broader discussion, including the planting of seeds now considered extreme. (I decline, at this time, to articulate any sampling of said seeds.)

A right-wing terror attack somewhere in the West startles the entire political spectrum. The incident, while obviously deplorable, generates disproportionate media attention as the MSM seek to prove that the largest terror threat facing the developed world is homegrown rightwing extremism.

Europe suffers no fewer than ten significant Islamist terror attacks. That’s it. That’s the prediction.

American cities suffer no fewer than fifty major crimes from illegal immigrant gangs or solo actor miscreants. (I further predict that it will be less than easy to make this tally a year from now. But I’m gonna try!) Political pressure builds for mass expulsion. Update as of 1/1/25: an apparent terror attack took place in New Orleans. Update as of 1/2/25: an apparent bombing attack in Las Vegas, delivered by Cybertruck.

Detroit Lions win the Super Bowl. Wow. I went there. I mean, if you know me . . . . Update as of 2/10/25: well, obviously that did not happen. We can probably agree NFL predicting is not my strong suit.

My horse does not win the Kentucky Derby. It’s okay. He never does.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams is forced to step down before Election Day. At the very least, he declares he will not run for reelection. The case around him builds too much speed to ignore. Jump ball as to whether he is eventually convicted, pleads guilty, or walks away. This prediction ends at his resignation.

Boeing (ticker: BA) requires extraordinary capital management measures and is effectively bailed out by the United States Government or corporate allies. The debt load proves unmanageable in light of the company’s cash flows and circumstances. The corporation is deemed too important to fail.

Intel (ticker: INTC) is bought or merged out of independent, public existence. The legendary company is determined to be on a path it can no longer sustain.

A major Western automaker goes bankrupt or is merged out of independent, public existence. The Chinese have stolen great American and especially European auto technology and are now improving on it, dumping products across the West, especially Europe. European labor policy, and to some extent recent American labor practice, makes effective business reform laughably impossible. The combination of facts kills a legendary brand. I have a private guess as to which carmaker dies first, but I prefer not to speak its name.

Tik Tok escapes American shutdown. Its lobbyists (investors) are close enough to Trump to defeat the worthy plan to ban Digital Fentanyl from the United States.

Alex Mashinsky, the villainous CEO and Founder of crypto “Unbank” Celsius, is sentenced to at least thirty years in federal penitentiary. Here is the transcript of a secret recording of his jailhouse conversation with Sam Bankman-Fried from 2024. This is the recording itself. This column suspects that Mashinsky pleaded guilty in a deal to avert federal charges against his wife, which would have effectively orphaned his kids. He will spend the rest of his days in prison.

Leeds United is promoted to the Premier League. (I also have a horse in this race. המבין יבין.) MOT!

The first real federal anti-woke-mind-virus financial blow lands on a major university’s jaw. Funding is slowed or withheld following a finding that the university, probably in the Ivy League, has failed its educational mission and its Jewish students. Protest lawsuits follow but eventually fail.

A name brand university dismantles its Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion infrastructure. The anti-woke camp advocating a full end to the Victim Olympics prevails at least on this one occasion over its first cousin anti-woke camp seeking additional protected victim status for more groups (white men, Jewish students, what-have-you). Many political officers are fired. Administrators realize that this is indeed possible, even if difficult. Many such administrators are secretly hopeful, perceiving that they no longer need to live in fear of false accusations of racism, homophobia, and other real and manufactured -isms and phobias. A whole raft of other administrators, the commissariat, who are effectively unemployable outside this political grift, are terrified and mount a full-throated defense of their existence.

Senator John Fetterman emerges as the face of the Democratic Party. Gavin Newsom does not. Nor does AOC. Harris disappears (cf. supra). Consensus finds Tim Walz is the Democrats’ Dan Quayle. Chuck Schumer blew his wad when he betrayed Israel. Nancy Pelosi is frail. Her treacherous Tammany Hall coup against Biden, co-led by Obama, proves both her career death knell and her only memorable legacy. Gretchen Whitmer is my dark horse backup for the Democrats’ emergent face, but she is still a national unknown. JB Pritzer semi-quietly builds his network. He is my current leading name for Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, but that is hors de prediction for this round.

Pope Francis does not die. He is very old. It bears predicting.

The Vatican’s Jubilee year draws more than 35 million visitors. One takes an interest in such things. And it’s measurable.

Ukraine and Russia begin formal negotiations for a settlement but do not achieve a lasting ceasefire. There may be short spurts of armistice. But it does not endure. Negotiations are on and off again through the end of the year.

Summer 2025 is the hottest on record in the Northern Hemisphere. The trend continues.

Winsome Earle-Sears is elected Governor of Virginia. Pols read (far) too much into the Virginia — and certainly the New Jersey — gubernatorial results. They’d have nothing to discuss otherwise. Would it were they would stop. But I’m making a call, and a US political bellwether call if there is any political bellwether call to make in 2025. In case it matters, and it probably does to someone somewhere, she’s a black Republican.

Zero Supreme Court Justices retire. This is probably one of this year’s safer predictions. Justice Thomas is the oldest member of the Court, at 75 years old. But even he will wait for another year or two before stepping down, if he plans to retire at all.

Emmanuel Macron is forced to find (yet) another Prime Minister. François Bayrou does not last the year.

Trump and Musk continue to have a strong working relationship in 2025. Despite the ill wishes of the tongue-wagging journoclasses, there is no falling out.